India will fight to 'live another day' as Australia hold all the Cards

(This article is a speculative piece based on whatever little bit of statistical skills I have acquired over the years. Other four links for the day are below this piece)

A lead of 213 is ideally well short of the target of 250, which the Australians would have liked to achieve tonight, and were capable of doing when Hayden was batting with Hussey.

However, the Australians still hold all the cards. As many as 98 overs remains in this match and by accepting the offer of light few overs early, they have suggested to India that they are not so desperate for a win and India should not expect a very reasonable target from them.

Ideally, they will not leave a challenge of less than five per over for India to achieve on this pitch, for a target of no less than 300-325, unless rain plays havoc with their plans.

India, certainly, are unlikely to get more than 60-65 overs tomorrow unless the Australian batting collapses. The only chance of attempting for a win will be to get Australia out for under 300 and have at least 70 overs at their disposal.

Nearly 85 overs for 349 runs – that was India’s progress post-Dravid in the 1st innings. It was a run-rate of 4.1 per over. The 45 overs after the dismissal of Kumble produced 187 runs. This means, again, a run-rate of just 4.2.

So faced with a run-rate of above five, or even 4.5 to chase a score in excess of 300, that too in the fourth innings, India will pretend to go for a win but settle for a draw to ‘’live another day’’.